With Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, the French President, a run-off election is scheduled for April 24, promising to combat high inflation. An analysis of first-round voting data has shown that Marine Le Pen, far right, holds a slight advantage in areas with low incomes, which are most affected by soaring prices.
Le Pen recognized people's frustration at the rising inflation and changed her campaign to include an anti-immigration, eurosceptic message. Instead, she will focus on how she will help families restore their budgets.
Macron won 27.8% more votes than Le Pen's 23.2%. However, there were large regional differences with electoral battle lines drawn on local economic, socio-demographic contours.
According to demographic analysis, Le Pen's promises resonated best in the areas where they matter most: those with lower living standards. These areas have higher rates of crime, more people who drop out of high schools, have lower life expectancies, and are more likely to be arrested.
This analysis suggests that Macron will struggle to reach voters beyond his city-dwelling, educated base.
Similar to 2017, economic wealth, education and political power were important determinants of whether departments lean towards Macron or Le Pen on Sunday. However, the correlation with higher living standards was stronger for Macron this time.
However, Macron was worse than Le Pen in areas of greater poverty. In the first place, Macron won 12.7%, while Le Pen won 16%.
Inflation is at an all-time high. Polls repeatedly show that voters are most concerned about their purchasing power heading into the election.
Official data from the government indicate that France experienced a large increase in gross disposable income under Macron's presidency, but that is rapidly being eroded by the rise in inflation in the last six months.
However, his poor results in areas with high unemployment and low income suggest that his message that he can best reverse the trend is not being heard in the areas most in need.
The package of a 25-billion euro ($27 billion) government package is worth 1% on France's economic output. It was designed to help people deal with high energy prices. Inflation has not helped to ease voters concerns.
Le Pen's performance was most closely related to Le Pen's life expectancy. This is often used as a general indicator of economic and social well being.
The life expectancy of females born in 2021 was one year lower than that of Macron's winners in the same departments where Le Pen won.
The two northern industrial departments where Le Pen performed best, the Aisne et Pas-de-Calais, had a two-year lower life expectancy than the national average. Nearly 30% of Aisne residents lack a high school diploma, while 21% have it. This is despite Le Pen's best result in the first round with 39%.
Macron made a note of this and took his campaign against Le Pen to Denain, the poorest northern town, as his first stop after Sunday's election.
Macron and Le Pen both will be looking for votes from Jean-Luc Melenchon supporters as they head into the second round. Jean-Luc Melenchon came in third place in the first round with 22% of votes.
This veteran leftist firebrand did well in urban areas that have a higher proportion of university-educated voters, who feel Macron has drifted to the right.
Nearly half of the votes were won by Melenchon in the northeastern Paris commuter area of Seine-Saint-Denis. Here, immigrants account for more than 30% of France's population.
Le Pen and Macron now have the chance to win those votes. They will need to convince people of the department to vote, as absentees are higher in this area than elsewhere.
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Reporting by Leigh Thomas Editing By Tomasz Janowski
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