Germany’s conservatives are expected to win the regional election in Schleswig-Holstein's northern state on Sunday. This is a boost for former Chancellor Angela Merkel's party which was expelled from the federal government last year.
The Christian Democrats (CDU), who have an impressive lead in polls in the state with nearly 3 million residents, account for 3.5% of Germany’s population.
ZDF Politbarometer published a survey on Thursday that put the CDU at 38% Schleswig-Holstein. This is more than the Social Democrats (SPD), and the environmentalist Greens (both at 18%).
Analysts believe that the CDU's strong standing in the state is due to Daniel Guenther, the popular state premier.
CDU sources said that Guenther, 48, who is polled as the most popular German state premier, could be given another term. This would strengthen the CDU's role of moderates, and counter Frederich Merz's more right-wing leader, CDU sources told Reuters.
Next week's elections in Germany's most populous State of North Rhine-Westphalia, (NRW), will prove to be more significant. There, the SPD and CDU are neck-and-neck.
After losing March in the small western state of Saarland to the conservatives, a loss in NRW would be a major blow for the party.
It would also make it easier to pass laws in the upper chamber of the national parliament. Regional elections determine how many votes are distributed.
These state elections are often dominated by regional issues like the cost of childcare and property purchase taxes.
National issues are also a focus of this year's attention, given the shift in German foreign and energy policy since February's invasion by Russia.
One, Germany wants to increase the use of renewable energy in order to lessen its dependence on Russia for oil and gas.
Schleswig-Holstein, located between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, is Germany's most important state in wind power generation. It has over 3,000 offshore and onshore wind turbines.
The Greens want to increase the number and reduce the distance between wind farms, residential buildings and wind farms. Meanwhile, the CDU wants the CDU to increase wind farm production without increasing their numbers.
Schleswig-Holstein will also be home to one of Germany's planned liquid natural gas terminals (LNG), whose construction was delayed due to the Ukraine conflict.
The Greens and South Schleswig Party, which represent the ethnic Danish minority had opposed the project in the past.
They are unlikely to object to being part of the government if there are concerns about energy supply, says Christian Meyer-Heidemann (the state's Commissioner Of Civic Education), a non-partisan office.
Since 2017, the state has been governed by the so-called Jamaica coalition of the Greens, conservatives, and FDP. Guenther stated that he would like to continue this if he wins the election.
If a majority is possible without the involvement of a third party, the next state coalition could be made up only of two parties: the CDU/Greens or the CDU/FDP.
Meyer-Heidemann stated, "It's all about the last per cent."
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